Well, the summer sailing season is upon is and I should have more reasons to blog, just being lazy. I’ve been blessed with wonderful sailing opportunities this year, the problem is an embarassment of riches and too many choices.
But in the midst of that, I still read a lot of books and want to comment on a couple. The first is “On the Brink” by Henry M. Paulson, former Secretary of the Treasury of the United States. The second is “Sonic Boom” by Gregg Easterbrook. The third is “The Age of Wonder” by Richard Holmes. Certainly on the surface they don’t seem in any way connected, but I kind of think they are.
I suppose you would say I was raised in a center-right environment; I am still a registered Republican, but like I imagine a lot of Americans, I was exhausted by what I perceived as the ethical turpitude and incompetence of the Bush administration. Enter Hank Paulson, one might say letting the fox into the chicken coup. But his book - obviously a self-justification, as we would all write were we in his shoes - paints an interesting picture. I knew a bit of his story by reading the corporate history of Goldman Sachs, recounted in these pages. He had an uphill climb, as a gentile and a Chicagoan. But he reached the top by extreme hard work, and he presents himself as not interested in riches and fame, and motivated by the stimulation of the jobs he held, of course culminating in Sec Treas. Paulson is 3 years older than I am.
“Sonic Boom” by Gregg Easterbrook is about the near future. His premise is basically - you ain’t seen nothing yet. Yes, we have a tragic and empathetic financial mess right now, but in the long view it will be seen as a speed bump. The fundamentals of globalization and staggering productivity gains will only experience network effects, feedback loops, etc. etc. and the world economy will grow in ways we can hardly conceive of, with attendant increases in benefits to many many people of the world who need it. BUT - he emphasizes that the very network effects that do and will cause all this to happen also produce our always-on, zombie like, disconnected, bewildered - and dare we say it??? - unhappy state and that this not only won’t go away but is likely to become more pronounced. Since the underlying causes will themselves be more pronounced. Hmmm….. Gregg is 3 years younger than I am.
Back to Hank Paulson - he tells in somewhat breezy style but considerable detail about his side of the crisis. I guess it should come as no surprise that he didn’t personally invent many of the paths that seemed bizarre from the outside - like approving $700B in TARP money to buy bad debt and then deciding to recapitalize banks instead of buying bad debt. Legions of staffers and outside economists pushed him in that direction and he agreed. He tells us that he suffered from teenage years with bad tummy under stress, and recounts that he was physically sick at a number of major moments during the crisis. He gives high praise to Tim Geithner for his calm, cool analytic skills and grasp of the big picture., (I have to say that’s my perception as well) and similarly kudos for Ben Bernanke. In their minds, and I think in the minds of my neighbors and friends in the Port Washington, there really wasn’t much to discuss - this had to be saved or the world economy would have gone down. My sense is that they are mostly right, but of course we will never know in detail.
Then there’s Gregg Easterbrook’s interesting take. He says - forget about whether the fund managers should be strung up by their thumbs - fundamentally these actions saved…the baby boomers!! at the expense of the young people who will pay the bills for us baby boomers when we are slobbering in our wheelchairs. We (sort of) preserved the mortgages on outrageous oversized homes of baby boomers, and set up kind of retaliatory structures that will make it hard for young people to enter the housing market going forward. Hmmm….
Of course there’s more to both books - Easterbrook has some pretty important things to say about health care needing to be fixed and if it’s not the Sonic Boom will be much smaller long term. Paulson points out, and I hear this in the scuttlebutt around New York, that at the real, real root of our problems is savings disparity between the East and West. We have to increase the savings rate in the US, no ifs and or buts, cannot continue as we are, and a good way to do that, though we may all hate the thought, may be a Value Added Tax.
Finally I come to Richard Holmes’s book. This takes place roughly from 1780-ish to 1850-ish. It is beautifully written and focuses on the way our undertanding of nature evolved into what we know of today as technology; he views this from a technical but equally importantly from a cultural and religious perspective of the time. It emphasizes England, because he is English, but includes connections to French, German, Italian and nascent American “natural philosophers. By the time of the beginning, some pretty heavy stuff had been worked out by the likes of Newton, Hooke, Boyle and others - but it hadn’t been applied or commercialized. In fact, the thrust of this book is about understanding what it meant to apply and commercialize. And in fact to invent the very word “scientist” which didn’t exist until a Royal Society lecture in 1820ish.
The book covers the “maturation” of the Royal Society, the explorations of the Pacific, ballooning , the advent of chemistry as we know it with a “pretty boy” by the name of Humprey Davy, the building of big electric batteries, safety lamps in coal mines..you get the picture.
The end of the book brings in Charles Babbage, who was by any measure an eccentric fellow, and as we know labored his whole adult life on mechanical analog computers. He was close friends with Michael Farraday, partied and toured Europe with him, on Babbage’s nickel..we might remember Farraday as building the first electric motors and elucidating the basic electromagnetic prinicples that make radio and our always-on cellular life ultimately possible.
So - “Age of Wonder” is a fascinating look at a time we might consider naive and sweet, of course humans have never really been naive and sweet except in hindsight, but I think it’s fair to say that all of us technologists of today are a whole lot more focused and cutthroat - we’ve had the ensuing 200 years from the time of this book to apply and commercialize the age of wonder into things that…are good…???…






























